Santa Cruz County

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Population & demographics

POPULATION ESTIMATES

According to the most recent population estimates for 2025, Santa Cruz County is home to 51,324 residents. The city of Nogales, which remains the county's largest municipality, is estimated to have 19,994 people, while the smaller town of Patagonia is estimated at 796 residents. The unincorporated areas of the county continue to see the most significant growth, reaching 30,534 people in 2025.
Over the past decade, from 2015 to 2025, the county's total population has grown by 8.6%, with nearly all of this increase occurring outside the incorporated towns. Nogales has experienced a slight decline of about 1.2% during this period, and Patagonia has seen a gradual decrease of nearly 7%. These trends highlight that while Santa Cruz County as a whole is growing, the growth is concentrated in the unincorporated regions—most notably in Rio Rico, which accounts for the majority of the unincorporated area's recent population increase.

POPULATION PROJECTIONS

By 2030, projections indicate the county will decline to 50,794 residents, with Nogales declining slightly to 19,769 and Patagonia to 784, while the unincorporated areas increase to 30,241. Rio Rico is projected to reach 22,935, Sonoita 896, and Tubac 1,765 by 2030. This trend continues through 2060, with the county reaching 53,272, Nogales declining to 17,478, Patagonia to 641, and the unincorporated balance rising to 35,152. By 2060, Rio Rico is projected at 26,660, Sonoita at 1,042, and Tubac at 2,051.
Overall, these projections show modest countywide growth concentrated in unincorporated and CDP areas, while Nogales and Patagonia are expected to see steady population declines.

See downloadable spreadsheets below for current and historical county, city, town & place population counts, estimates, and projections.

Labor market

Labor Force & Unemployment

Santa Cruz County entered 2026 showing encouraging momentum in its labor market. Through the first three months of the year, the unemployment rate has steadily improved, declining from 6.8% in January to 6.6% in February and reaching 6.1% by March—the lowest reading so far in 2026. The civilian labor force has remained robust, averaging approximately 21,500 workers during the first quarter, while employment levels have held steady around 20,100 residents with jobs. This early-year trajectory suggests continued stabilization following the seasonal volatility observed in the prior year.
The year 2025 demonstrated both resilience and characteristic fluctuations for this border county. The annual average unemployment rate finished at 6.8%, slightly elevated from 2024's 6.3% average, though this largely reflected seasonal patterns rather than structural weakness. Labor force participation expanded notably throughout the year, with the civilian labor force averaging 21,435 workers—a meaningful increase from the 20,499 average recorded in 2024. This growth in participation signals increased economic confidence among Santa Cruz County residents returning to or entering the workforce. Seasonality remained a defining feature, with unemployment reaching its lowest point in May at 5.7% before climbing sharply during summer months and peaking at 9.1% in August. By year-end, conditions had improved significantly, with unemployment falling to 6.4% in December as employment rebounded strongly in the final quarter.
Comparing the two years provides useful context. The Q1 2026 unemployment rate trajectory (6.8% → 6.6% → 6.1%) closely mirrors the Q1 2025 pattern (6.1% → 6.1% → 6.1%), suggesting comparable economic conditions at this stage of the year. Employment levels in early 2026 are running slightly ahead of the same period in 2025, with March 2026 showing 20,117 employed residents compared to 20,540 in March 2025. Looking back further, the county has made substantial progress since 2024, when employment averaged just 19,207 and the labor force participation was notably lower. The expansion of the labor force from approximately 20,500 in 2024 to over 21,400 in 2025-2026 reflects growing economic opportunities in this Arizona border region, likely supported by cross-border trade activity and local service sector employment.
Recent labor market trends in Nogales and Patagonia (Santa Cruz County) indicate gradual improvement between 2025 and early 2026, with both communities showing declining unemployment rates, though at different levels and with varying degrees of volatility.

Nonfarm Payroll Employment

In 2025, Santa Cruz County recorded an annual average of 13,975 total nonfarm jobs, representing an increase of 475 jobs (+3.5%) compared to the 2024 annual average of 13,500. Private sector employment averaged 10,175 jobs, up 400 (+4.1%) from 9,775 in 2024. The Goods Producing sector grew to 925 jobs, an increase of 75 (+8.8%) over the prior year's 850. Trade, Transportation, and Utilities—the county's dominant private industry—averaged 5,825 jobs, up 100 (+1.7%) from 5,725 in 2024. Government employment rose to 3,800, a gain of 75 positions (+2.0%) compared to 3,725 in 2024, with federal employment steady at 1,675 and state and local government averaging 2,125. Employment exhibited pronounced seasonality throughout 2025, peaking at 14,625 jobs in December before dropping to a low of 13,025 in July. State and local government employment fluctuated dramatically from a summer low of 1,500 in July to 2,350 in December, reflecting typical educational calendar patterns.
Through the first quarter of 2026 (January–March), Santa Cruz County shows continued improvement. Total nonfarm employment ranged from 14,375 to 14,450 jobs, already exceeding the 2025 annual average. Private sector employment held firm at 10,325–10,400 jobs, while Goods Producing employment ticked up to 950–975 jobs. Trade, Transportation, and Utilities stabilized at 6,050–6,075 jobs, and government employment remained steady at approximately 4,025–4,050 jobs, with federal positions holding constant at 1,700 and state and local government at 2,325–2,350.
Looking at longer-term trends from 2020 to 2026, Santa Cruz County has demonstrated a strong recovery and sustained growth trajectory. Total nonfarm employment fell sharply during the pandemic, dropping from a 2020 annual average of 12,650 jobs to a mid-year low of just 11,350 in July 2020. The county rebounded to 12,950 jobs in 2021, then climbed steadily to 13,125 in 2022, 13,600 in 2023, and 13,500 in 2024 before reaching 13,975 in 2025—a net gain of 1,325 jobs (+10.5%) compared to 2020. Private sector employment followed a similar path, rising from an average of 8,950 in 2020 to 10,175 in 2025, representing a 14% increase over six years. The Goods Producing sector, though small, grew from 600 jobs in 2020 to 925 in 2025—a 54% increase. Trade, Transportation, and Utilities expanded from 5,400 in 2020 to 5,825 in 2025, while government employment remained relatively stable, averaging between 3,700 and 3,800 jobs annually throughout the period. Early 2026 data suggests the county is on track to sustain this growth momentum, with first-quarter employment levels approximately 14% higher than the same period in 2020.

Wages

Santa Cruz County wages have grown steadily over the past five years, with the overall mean annual wage rising from $48,834 in 2021 to $57,737 in 2025—an 18% increase. Hourly wages followed suit, climbing from $23.48 to $27.75 during the same period.
Management positions command the highest compensation, with Sales Managers leading at $66.96/hour ($139,268 annually) in 2025, followed by Medical and Health Services Managers at $60.24/hour and General Managers at $59.18/hour. Healthcare Practitioners ($50.34/hour) and Legal Occupations ($49.55/hour) also rank among top earners.
Significant wage disparity exists across the workforce. The 90th percentile earns $108,023 annually while the 10th percentile earns just $30,965—a gap exceeding $77,000. Management roles show the widest spread, with top earners making more than triple entry-level wages within the same category.
At the lower end, several occupations remain clustered near minimum wage. Packers and Packagers ($15.11/hour), Fast Food Workers ($15.73/hour), Home Health Aides ($15.90/hour), and Cashiers ($16.16/hour) represent the lowest-paid positions, with minimal wage variation across percentiles indicating limited advancement potential.
Business and Financial Operations wages grew 17% from $67,907 to $79,331 annually, with Compliance Officers earning above-average wages at $41.75/hour. Protective Service workers average $40.29/hour, though individual roles range widely from Security Guards ($17.02/hour) to Police Supervisors ($46.79/hour). Skilled trades in transportation and construction fall in the mid-range, with Heavy Truck Drivers at $26.07/hour and Construction Supervisors at $34.21/hour.

Major industry sales

In 2025, Santa Cruz County’s major industry sales showed a modest cooling following several years of post-pandemic expansion. Retail sales declined by about 2.0% to roughly $508 million, down from approximately $519 million in 2024. Restaurant and bar sales also decreased slightly by about 4.8% to around $98 million, while hotel and motel receipts fell more notably by about 10.6% to approximately $18.9 million, indicating a broad-based softening across all sectors in the most recent year.
Compared to 2019, however, all sectors remain significantly elevated despite the sharp disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Retail sales have increased by roughly 45.8% from about $349 million, restaurant and bar sales have risen by approximately 55.6% from around $63 million, and hotel and motel receipts are up about 26.5% from roughly $14.9 million. Overall, the data reflect a clear pandemic-driven decline followed by a strong recovery and expansion through 2024, with 2025 representing a period of normalization in which growth has moderated but remains well above pre-pandemic levels.

Gross domestic product (GDP) & personal income

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT

In 2024, Santa Cruz County produced $2.8 billion in current-dollar total Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the total value of all goods and services produced within the county. This reflects continued expansion, rising from $2.7 billion in 2023 and $2.5 billion in 2022, and building on longer-term gains from $1.6 billion in 2015 and $1.4 billion in 2010. Back in 2014, Santa Cruz County’s total GDP was $1.6 billion and ranked 13th in the state, compared to 11th in 2024. Private industries generated $2.2 billion in 2024 while government contributed $0.6 billion, supporting the sustained upward trend in nominal GDP.
In real terms, Santa Cruz County’s growth has been uneven, particularly during the COVID-19 period when economic activity declined. Real GDP fell by -2.2% in 2020 during COVID and declined again by -0.4% in 2021 before rebounding to 4.9% in 2022 and 2.9% in 2023 as conditions improved. Growth then slowed to 1.5% in 2024, below the state’s 4.5% increase, indicating more modest recent economic momentum in Santa Cruz County. Over the longer term, real GDP in Santa Cruz County expanded at a compound annual growth rate of 2.7% from 2014 to 2024, compared to 4.0% statewide, highlighting a slower overall pace of economic growth following the pandemic period.

PERSONAL INCOME

Personal income in Santa Cruz County reached approximately $2.6 billion in 2024, reflecting modest growth of 3.7% from the prior year and continuing a steady upward trajectory in recent years. Growth has slowed compared to the stronger rebound earlier in the decade, including an 11.8% increase in 2021 and a 9.0% gain in 2023, indicating that income expansion has normalized after the more volatile pandemic-era swings. The 2022 decline of 1.3% stands out as a brief interruption, but was followed by renewed growth, suggesting underlying gains remain intact despite short-term fluctuations.
In 2024, per capita personal income reached $50,841, increasing 1.9% from 2023 but trailing broader benchmarks, as growth at the state (4.4%) and national (4.6%) levels outpaced the county. The county’s per capita income ranked 9th among Arizona’s 15 counties and remained comparatively lower at 77.3% of the state average and 69.5% of the national average, highlighting a persistent gap despite continued gains.
Over a longer horizon, per capita income rose from $31,753 in 2014 to its current level, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 4.8%. While this pace slightly lags state growth of 5.6%, it is generally in line with the national rate of 4.7%, indicating that Santa Cruz County has kept pace with national trends even as it has fallen short of faster statewide gains. Overall, the most recent data point to continued, but moderating, expansion in personal income, with steady gains at both the total and per capita levels alongside ongoing differences relative to state and national benchmarks.

See downloadable spreadsheets below for current and historical GDP and personal income data.

For more info on Santa Cruz County's personal income and GDP, check out the county's BEA Regional Fact Sheet (BEARFACTS)

Real estate & new home construction

HOUSING MARKET

Santa Cruz County’s housing market in May 2026 shows a region cooling from earlier highs, with softer prices, longer selling timelines, and easing rents shaping conditions across its communities. According to Realtor.com® Economic Research, the countywide median listing price has declined to $345,000, down nearly 6 percent year over year, while homes now take a median of 80 days to sell—a modest slowdown that reinforces broadly buyer‑friendly conditions. Rental prices have also eased, with the median rent falling to $1,800, a 10 percent annual decline that signals improved affordability for tenants.
Within this broader environment, Nogales, Patagonia, and Rio Rico each display distinct market dynamics shaped by inventory levels, pricing shifts, and buyer demand.
- In Nogales, stability stands out. The median listing price remains $319,000, unchanged from last year, while homes sell in a median of 75 days, a slight improvement that suggests a mildly quicker pace for buyers and sellers alike. Inventory has tightened sharply—active listings are down more than 25 percent—helping maintain Nogales’ balanced conditions, with homes generally selling close to the asking price. Rentals remain limited, with only eight available units and a median rent of $1,300, making Nogales the most affordable rental market among the county’s major communities.
- Patagonia shows the most dramatic price correction in the region. Its median listing price has fallen to $594,000, a steep 20.69 percent year‑over‑year decline, indicating that sellers are adjusting expectations after a period of elevated valuations. Yet homes are moving faster: median days on market have dropped to 80 days, a 26 percent improvement that suggests renewed buyer interest at more realistic price points. Inventory has grown to 87 active listings, giving buyers more options, while the absence of rental listings underscores an extremely tight rental environment. Patagonia remains firmly a buyer’s market, though its price point continues to sit well above the countywide median.
- Rio Rico, the county’s largest for‑sale market by volume, reflects a mix of affordability and slowing momentum. With 427 active listings and a median listing price of $291,000, Rio Rico remains one of the most accessible ownership markets in Santa Cruz County. Prices have softened by just over 5 percent year over year, and homes now take 71 days to sell, a notable increase that reinforces its buyer‑market classification. The rental market, however, tells a different story: median rent has climbed to $1,800, up nearly 11 percent year over year, signaling strong renter demand even as the for‑sale side cools.
Taken together, these trends illustrate a county in transition. Santa Cruz County’s overall cooling—marked by lower prices, longer listing durations, and easing rents—sets the stage for local variation: Nogales’ steady balance, Patagonia’s sharp price reset paired with faster sales, and Rio Rico’s high inventory and softening prices. Each community reflects a different facet of the broader shift toward more buyer‑friendly conditions across the region.
For the most recent housing market data and trends (median listing home price, median listing home price per square foot, median sold home price, sale-to-list price ratio, median days on market, and more), select a geography:

NEW HOME CONSTRUCTION

New residential construction in Santa Cruz County totaled 353 housing units in 2025, marking a modest increase from 338 units in 2024 and continuing the county’s gradual recovery in homebuilding activity. Nearly all new construction consists of single-family homes, reflecting a housing market that remains overwhelmingly oriented toward detached units with little multifamily development.
This recent growth builds on a longer-term rebound from the sharp contraction that followed the Great Recession, when annual permit activity fell to just 42 units in the early 2010s. While current levels represent a significant improvement from those lows, they remain well below the mid-2000s peak, when permits exceeded 700 units, indicating that construction activity has not fully returned to pre-recession levels.
In value terms, new residential construction reached approximately $87.7 million in 2025, suggesting continued investment in the housing stock even as growth in unit volume remains moderate. However, the average value of single-family permits declined slightly compared to the prior year, pointing to some softening in per-unit construction costs or a shift toward relatively lower-priced homes.
Overall, recent trends show that residential construction in Santa Cruz County is expanding at a steady but measured pace. Gains in permit activity over the past few years indicate improving conditions and ongoing demand for housing, but the scale of development remains constrained relative to historical highs, with growth occurring through incremental increases rather than large surges in new building activity.

For the most recent monthly data for the current year, click here.

See downloadable spreadsheets below for current and historical annual building permit data.

Bank deposits & bankruptcy filings

BANK DEPOSITS

The most recent trends in Santa Cruz County bank deposits reveal a notable reversal following the pandemic-era surge. After reaching an all-time high of $1.4 billion in 2022, deposits have declined for three consecutive years—falling 14.2% in 2023, 1.4% in 2024, and 7.6% in 2025—bringing the current total down to $1.1 billion.
The 2022 peak was driven by a remarkable 33.4% increase fueled by COVID-19 stimulus payments, reduced consumer spending, and economic caution. The pandemic initially sparked a 20.1% surge in 2020 as consumers increased savings amid uncertainty. As pandemic conditions eased and spending patterns normalized, deposits began their decline.
Despite recent declines, the 2020s still maintain the highest average deposit level at $1.2 billion across all decades in the dataset.
Looking at the broader historical context, deposits have grown significantly over the past three decades, rising from $413.8 million in 1994. The 1990s experienced the highest average growth rate at 7.7%, driven by strong years like 1997 with 22.4% growth.
The 2000s saw more moderate growth averaging 3.0%, while the 2010s slowed further to just 1.7% average growth, including a notable decline of 17.0% in 2014.

BANKRUPTCY FILINGS

In 2025, there were 98 bankruptcy filings (all chapters) in Santa Cruz County. Bankruptcy filings in Santa Cruz County show a clear pre-pandemic peak, a multi-year contraction, and a recent rebound. Filings climbed from 113 (2018) to a peak of 150 (2019), then fell sharply through the pandemic period to 108 (2020), 74 (2021), and 62 (2022), stabilizing at a trough of 61 (2023). The trend turned upward in 2024, jumping to 94 (+54.1%), followed by a more modest increase to 98 (2025) (+4.3%). Recent movement indicates normalization around the high-90s, still below the 2019 peak.

Cross-border economy

BORDER CROSSINGS

Recent trends show that more people are crossing the border on foot at Nogales Port of Entry than in recent years, and travel by car remains popular and well above pandemic levels.
In 2025, over 3.4 million people crossed the border on foot at the Nogales Port of Entry. This is up from about 3.26 million in 2024, continuing a steady recovery since the pandemic low of 1.42 million in 2020. Each year since 2020, more people have been crossing on foot, showing that travel is returning to normal.
In 2025, about 7.08 million people entered the U.S. as passengers in personal vehicles at the Nogales Port. This is slightly fewer than the 7.36 million in 2024, but still much higher than the 3.56 million seen in 2020. After a big rebound in 2021 and 2022, the numbers have stayed strong, even with a small dip in 2025.
These trends show that border crossings at Nogales are getting back to normal, with millions of people moving between the two countries each year.

See downloadable spreadsheets below for current and historical border crossing data for bus passengers, buses, pedestrians, personal vehicle passengers, personal vehicles, truck containers [empty and loaded], and trucks at the Nogales Port of Entry.

INTERNATIONAL TRADE

In 2024, the value of international trade (imports and exports) passing through Santa Cruz County's Nogales port of entry totaled $34.5 billion, up 8.2% from the year prior. That followed growth of 10.6% in 2021, 16.4% in 2022, and 9.7% in 2023 (after a COVID-related decline of 15.8% in 2020, the first year of the pandemic). The total value of trade through the Nogales port in 2024 was up 28.7% from 2019, the year prior to the pandemic.
In 2024, exports totaled $10.9 billion, up 5.0% from 2023, while imports came in at $23.6 billion, up 9.8%.

See downloadable spreadsheets below for current and historical international trade data (imports, exports, and total trade) for the Nogales port of entry.

Tourism visitor counts & travel industry impacts

VISITOR COUNTS

In 2024, visits to Patagonia Lake State Park in Santa Cruz County totaled 235,502, down 3.1% from the year prior, according to data from Arizona Office of Tourism. That followed annual increases of 14.1% in 2023 and 5.2% in 2022. In 2024, visits to Patagonia Lake were down 0.8% from 2019, the year prior to the COVID pandemic.
Visits to Tubac Presidio State Historic Park totaled 7,256 in 2024, up 15.9% from the year prior (after falling 5.4% in 2023 and 2.3% in 2022; that followed a 39.7% COVID-related decline in 2020 and a 40.2% rebound in 2021). Annual visits in 2024 were down 9.7% from 2019, the year prior to the pandemic.
Visits to Tumacacori National Historic Park totaled 35,256 in 2024, down 6.9% from the year prior, on the heels of a 2.4% decline in 2023 (that followed increases of 16.3% in 2022 and 40.6% in 2021, rebounding from a 40.2% drop in 2020, the first year of the pandemic). Annual visits in 2024 were down 11.2% from the pre-pandemic year 2019.

See downloadable spreadsheets below for annual Santa Cruz County national and state park visitor counts by attraction.

TRAVEL INDUSTRY IMPACTS

Santa Cruz County's travel industry (including business and leisure travel) generated $283.3 million in direct spending countywide in 2024, according to research by Dean Runyan Associates for Arizona Office of Tourism. That was down 1.6% from 2023 (following annual increases of 61.2% in 2021, 36.4% in 2022, and 10.4% in 2023, rebounding from a 49.5% COVID-related drop in 2020, the first year of the pandemic). Travel-related direct spending in 2023 was at its highest level since 2014, and remained second highest since that year after the 2024 decline. Santa Cruz County's travel industry supported 1,900 jobs countywide in 2024 (down 0.5% from the year prior) with household earnings of $59.6 million (up 2.6% from 2023), according to the study.

Santa Cruz County agriculture profile

2022 Census of Agriculture

Recent trends in Santa Cruz County agriculture show a notable contraction in farm activity. The number of farms decreased by 24 from 2017 to 2022, and land in farms shrank by 40 acres, with the average farm size dropping by 20 acres.
The market value of products sold in 2022 was $11.3 million, representing a sharp 42% decline since 2017. On a per farm basis, the average market value of products sold was $68,266, down 24%. Total farm production expenses also declined by 30%, but net cash farm income plummeted, showing a dramatic negative shift of -2,784% overall and -3,641% per farm, indicating significant financial stress for local producers.
Crop sales remain slightly dominant, accounting for 57% of agricultural sales ($6.5 million), while livestock, poultry, and related products make up 43% ($4.8 million). Most farmland is used for pasture (over 105,000 acres), with only a small fraction (3,974 acres) dedicated to cropland and just 1% of land irrigated. Conservation practices are limited, with only a small percentage of farms using no-till, reduced till, or cover crops.
The majority of farms are small, with 46% under 50 acres, and 34% of farms have annual sales less than $2,500. Only 11% of farms reach sales of $100,000 or more.
Cattle and calves are the most significant livestock, with over 10,000 head, and grapes are the leading crop by acreage among those reported.
The producer population is aging, with nearly half over 65, and 81% of farms have internet access. Family farms dominate, making up 89% of the total, and 31% of farms hire labor.
These trends highlight ongoing challenges in profitability, a shift toward smaller operations, and limited adoption of conservation practices.

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Southeast Arizona Economics

Santa Cruz County economic data, statistics & info