Graham County

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Population & demographics

POPULATION ESTIMATES

Drawing on the latest Arizona Office of Economic Opportunity (OEO) estimates through 2025, Graham County’s population has resumed modest growth after a slow 2010s. The county rose from 37,297 (2010) to a new high of 40,277 (2025), an +8.0% net gain, with momentum shifting from a subdued +2.9% in the 2010s to +4.3% in 2020–2025.
Within the county, Pima has been the standout, climbing from 2,397 (2010) to 3,196 (2025) (+33.3%), accelerating notably in the 2020s. Thatcher also posted strong, steady gains from 4,871 to 5,700 (+17.0%), including +8.4% since 2020, while Safford grew more moderately from 9,586 to 10,329 (+7.7%), peaking in 2022 (10,355) before edging slightly lower.
The unincorporated balance of the county increased from 20,444 to 21,052 (+3.0%), dipping mid‑2010s and then rebounding to a high in 2024 (21,124) with a slight pullback in 2025.
Overall, recent trends point to a countywide re‑acceleration in the 2020s, led by faster growth in Pima and Thatcher, steadier but softer gains in Safford, and a stabilizing unincorporated area.

POPULATION PROJECTIONS

From 2025 to 2060, Graham County’s population is expected to grow from 40,277 to 48,265 (+7,988, +19.8%), according to OEO projections, reflecting a steady but gradually slowing trajectory with an average annual pace of about 0.52%/yr.
Projected growth is broad-based but led by the Unincorporated Balance, which increases from 21,052 to 25,507 (+4,455, +21.2%, ~0.55%/yr) and accounts for the majority of countywide gains.
Among municipalities, Safford remains the largest contributor in absolute terms, rising from 10,329 to 12,040 (+1,711, +16.6%, ~0.44%/yr). Thatcher advances from 5,700 to 6,771 (+1,071, +18.8%, ~0.49%/yr), while Pima posts the fastest municipal percentage growth, moving from 3,196 to 3,947 (+751, +23.5%, ~0.60%/yr).
Across CDPs with populations of 500 or more, growth is consistently higher than the county average at +25.6% overall (≈0.65%/yr), led in absolute gains by Swift Trail Junction (2,807 → 3,526, +719), followed by Bylas (+456), Cactus Flats (+390), Peridot (+221), and Central (+194).
Taken together, the projections indicate sustained countywide expansion with the unincorporated areas driving over half of new residents, municipalities growing at modest but durable rates (with Pima fastest by percentage), and unincorporated CDPs outpacing both on a relative basis.

See downloadable spreadsheets below for current and historical county, city, town & place population counts, estimates, and projections.

Labor market

Labor Force & Unemployment

Graham County's labor market has experienced steady growth from 2022 through early 2026, though recent months show some softening in conditions. The civilian labor force grew from an annual average of approximately 15,986 in 2022 to 17,198 in 2025, representing an increase of about 7.6% over three years. Employment followed a similar trajectory, rising from an average of 15,413 employed persons in 2022 to 16,504 in 2025.
The unemployment rate remained relatively low throughout this period, averaging 3.6% in both 2022 and 2023, then improving slightly to 3.5% in 2024 before edging up to 4.0% in 2025. This uptick in 2025 coincided with a modest increase in the number of unemployed residents, which rose from an average of 578 in 2024 to 694 in 2025.
In early 2026 (January through March), the labor market shows some signs of cooling. The unemployment rate started the year at 4.9% in January—the highest monthly rate observed in the 2020s—before declining to 4.6% in February and 4.1% in March. The number of unemployed workers also decreased during this period, falling from 838 in January to 700 in March. Employment levels have remained relatively stable, ranging from approximately 16,169 to 16,413 during the first quarter of 2026.
Overall, Graham County has maintained a relatively healthy labor market with unemployment rates consistently below state and national averages, though the early 2026 data suggests employers and workers should monitor conditions as the year progresses.
Safford, Thatcher, and Pima town — all located in Graham County, Arizona — have experienced broadly similar labor market dynamics over the past several years, with unemployment rates recovering strongly from pandemic-era highs before showing a modest uptick in 2025 and into early 2026.
- Safford city, the largest of the three communities, saw its average annual unemployment rate spike to 5.8% in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic, peaking at 8.0% in July 2020. The city experienced a robust recovery in 2021 (average 3.2%) and reached its lowest rates in 2022–2024, averaging around 2.5–2.6%. However, 2025 brought a slight reversal, with the annual average rising to 3.0%. Early 2026 data (January–March) shows unemployment rates of 3.6%, 3.4%, and 3.0% respectively, suggesting a continued but moderating upward trend compared to the prior year.
- Thatcher town has closely mirrored Safford's trajectory. The town's unemployment rate averaged 5.3% in 2020, peaked at 7.3% in July of that year, then improved dramatically to 2.9% in 2021 and stabilized around 2.3–2.4% through 2022–2024. In 2025, the average increased to 2.7%, and early 2026 rates (3.3% in January, 3.1% in February, and 2.8% in March) indicate a slight increase from the prior year's levels while still remaining moderate compared to pandemic highs.
- Pima town stands out with remarkably low unemployment throughout the period. Its rates have consistently remained below 1%, even during the pandemic peak in 2020 (average 0.6%, peaking at 0.9% in June–July). Since 2022, Pima's unemployment rate has hovered around 0.3% annually, indicating near-full employment. Early 2026 data shows rates of 0.4%, 0.4%, and 0.3% for January–March, consistent with its historical pattern.
- Overall, all three Graham County incorporated communities have demonstrated resilient labor markets, with unemployment rates well below both state and national averages. The slight increases observed in 2025 and early 2026 suggest some softening in local labor conditions, but rates remain historically low and significantly improved from the pandemic period.

Nonfarm Payroll Employment

Graham County has experienced steady employment growth over the past six years. Total nonfarm employment rose from an annual average of 9,475 jobs in 2020 to 10,975 in 2025—an increase of approximately 1,500 jobs, or nearly 16 percent. The trajectory has been remarkably consistent, with the county adding jobs each successive year: 9,750 in 2021, 10,175 in 2022, 10,525 in 2023, and 10,775 in 2024, before reaching 10,975 in 2025.
Private sector employment has driven most of this expansion, growing from 6,675 jobs in 2020 to 8,050 in 2025—a 20.6 percent increase. Goods-producing industries, primarily mining and construction, rose from 1,900 to 2,350 jobs over the same period.
Government employment has remained relatively stable, increasing overall from approximately 2,800 in 2020 to 2,925 in 2025 (after peaking near 3,025 in 2023-2024).
Early 2026 data (January–March) shows continued momentum, with total nonfarm employment ranging from 10,675 to 11,150—consistent with the upward trend established over the past six years.

Wages

Wage data from Arizona Office of Economic Opportunity show a clear and steady pattern of growth across most occupations in Graham County from 2020 through 2025, reflecting broad upward pressure on earnings. Overall average wages for all occupations rose from $45,997 in 2020 to $58,934 in 2025, a cumulative increase of about 28.1% over the period.
This growth trend is also visible in hourly data, where the mean wage increased from $22.11 in 2020 to $28.33 in 2025, a gain of roughly 28.1%, showing consistent annual gains rather than abrupt spikes.
Higher-paying occupational groups—particularly management, healthcare practitioners, and technical roles—experienced some of the most pronounced wage increases. For example, management occupations rose from $85,898 in 2020 to $100,957 in 2025, an increase of about 17.5%, while healthcare practitioner roles climbed from $74,232 to $108,406 over the same period, a gain of roughly 46.0%. These increases suggest sustained demand and possibly tightening labor conditions in these high-skill areas.
Even mid-tier occupations such as business and financial operations and office administrative support show steady upward movement, indicating that wage growth was not limited to the highest-paid segments.
Lower-wage service sectors, including food preparation, retail, and personal care, also experienced wage gains. Food preparation occupations increased from $29,469 in 2020 to $38,376 in 2025, a rise of about 30.2%, and retail-related occupations similarly trended upward over the period. These increases indicate that wage growth extended into service-oriented occupations as well, contributing to broader earnings gains across the local economy.
Taken together, the data indicate a broad-based upward trajectory in wages across the local economy, with consistent year-over-year increases rather than volatility. Compared with broader benchmarks, Graham County has recorded faster wage growth from 2020 to 2025 than Arizona and the U.S. overall, even though local wage levels remained below state and national averages. This pattern suggests a combination of factors—such as inflationary pressures, labor market tightening, and occupational demand shifts—contributing to sustained wage growth across most sectors in Graham County during the 2020–2025 period, while also reflecting a measure of local wage catch-up rather than full convergence with broader labor markets.

Major industry sales

RETAIL, RESTAURANT & BAR, AND HOTEL/MOTEL/ACCOMMODATIONS

From 2024 to 2025, retail sales (Graham County only), restaurant and bar sales (Graham County only), and hotel and motel receipts (combined Graham and Greenlee counties) all continued to increase, but at a slower pace than in prior years, according to tax collection data from Arizona Department of Revenue.
Retail grew slightly from about $463.8 million to $469.8 million (about +1.3%), restaurant and bar sales rose from about $61.4 million to $64.2 million (about +4.7%), and hotel and motel receipts increased from about $18.8 million to $21.0 million (about +11.5%). This shows continued expansion across all sectors, with the strongest recent gains in lodging, while retail—despite being much larger—experienced relatively modest growth.
Looking back to 2019, all three categories have grown substantially, reflecting both disruption and recovery during and after the COVID-19 pandemic.
Retail sales increased from about $289.1 million in 2019 to $469.8 million in 2025, a gain of roughly 62.6%, indicating strong overall expansion despite the challenges of the pandemic period.
Restaurant and bar sales rose from about $41.7 million to $64.2 million, or about +53.9%, showing a recovery from pandemic-related impacts on dining followed by steady growth.
Hotel and motel receipts, which reflect combined Graham and Greenlee counties due to the limited number of lodging businesses, grew from about $12.5 million to $21.0 million, an increase of roughly 67.7%, making it the fastest-growing category over this period, though also the most variable.
Overall, the trend since 2019 highlights the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, with an initial disruption followed by a strong rebound and expansion—especially in the early 2020s—and then a shift toward slower, more moderate growth in the most recent years.

See downloadable spreadsheets, below, for current and historical major industry sales (retail, restaurant & bar, and hotel/motel).

Gross domestic product (GDP) & personal income

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT

In 2024, Graham County produced $2.02 billion in current-dollar total Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the total value of all goods and services produced within the county. This GDP ranked 14th in the state (of Arizona’s 15 counties) and accounted for 0.4% of the state total. Back in 2014, the total GDP of Graham County was $771.7 million and ranked 14th in the state.
In 2024, Graham County real GDP grew 11.8%; the 2023–2024 state change was 4.5%. The 2014–2024 compound annual growth rate for Graham County real GDP was 5.4%; the compound annual growth rate for the state was 4.0%.
Graham County's economy has demonstrated strong momentum in the past several years. After a modest slowdown in 2022, when real GDP growth dipped to -7.9%, the county rebounded with real GDP growth of 1.1% in 2023 and a robust 11.8% in 2024. Nominal GDP growth also accelerated, reaching 16.1% in 2024.
The private sector continues to drive this expansion, accounting for $1.69 billion or 83.8% of total GDP, while government contributed $326.8 million or 16.2%.
Mining and oil/gas extraction remains the dominant industry, generating $844.1 million (41.9% of total GDP) in 2024 and experiencing a strong 23.9% growth that year.
Other sectors also contributed to the positive trend: retail trade reached $147.2 million, health care $124.8 million, and construction surged to $66.4 million, up 48.4% from the previous year. These gains reflect broad-based growth and resilience across key industries, positioning Graham County for continued economic strength following a period of volatility.

PERSONAL INCOME

In 2024, Graham County had a per capita personal income (PCPI) of $44,164. This PCPI ranked at the bottom of Arizona’s 15 counties and was 67.1% of the state average, $65,798, and 60.3% of the national average, $73,204. The 2024 PCPI reflected an increase of 2.9% from 2023. The 2023–2024 state change was 4.4% and the national change was 4.6%.
Back in 2014, the PCPI of Graham County was $28,293 and ranked 14th of the state’s 15 counties. The 2014–2024 compound annual growth rate of PCPI was 4.6%. The compound annual growth rate for the state was 5.6% and for the nation was 4.7%.
From 2020 to 2024, Graham County experienced notable changes in personal income, per capita income, and population.
- In 2020, personal income grew by 13.1%, a significant jump that coincided with a modest population increase of 0.8%. This surge in income was likely influenced by economic recovery efforts and federal stimulus measures during the pandemic, resulting in a 12.2% rise in per capita income.
- The following year, 2021, saw continued strong growth, with personal income increasing by 9.8% and per capita income by 9.0%, while the population again grew by 0.8%.
- In 2022, the pace of growth moderated. Personal income rose by 4.9%, and per capita income increased by 5.2%. However, the population experienced a slight decline of 0.3%, suggesting that income gains were distributed among fewer residents, which helped maintain per capita growth.
- The year 2023 marked a rebound in population, which grew by 2.0%. Personal income increased by 6.1%, and per capita income rose by 4.1%, reflecting ongoing economic expansion.
- By 2024, personal income growth settled at 4.7%, with per capita income rising by 2.9%. Population growth remained positive at 1.7%.
- These trends indicate that while the most dramatic gains occurred in the immediate aftermath of the pandemic, Graham County has continued to experience steady economic and demographic growth, with rising incomes and a gradually expanding population contributing to improved prosperity for residents.

See downloadable spreadsheets below for current and historical GDP and personal income data.

For more info on Graham County's GDP and personal income, check out the county's BEA Regional Fact Sheet (BEARFACTS)

Real estate & new home construction

HOUSING MARKET

Graham County’s residential real estate market, as of April 2026, reflects a maturing regional environment shaped by the interconnected communities of Safford, Thatcher, and Pima. Countywide indicators point to a generally warm market characterized by elevated listing prices, moderate inventory, and marketing times that have lengthened compared with the prior year.
Safford continues to function as the county’s primary housing center, offering the largest volume of available homes and a stable pricing structure, though the notable rise in days on market suggests a gradual normalization of buyer activity.
Thatcher presents a slightly higher price profile with steady turnover, indicating a market that has softened modestly but remains fundamentally balanced.
Pima distinguishes itself with the highest median listing prices and the strongest year‑over‑year appreciation in the county, underscoring sustained demand despite limited rental availability.
Collectively, these communities illustrate a cohesive regional housing landscape in which local variations in price growth, inventory, and market velocity remain closely tied to countywide economic and demographic trends.
All data are drawn from Realtor.com® Economic Research and reflect conditions reported for April 2026.For the most recent housing market data and trends (median listing home price, median listing home price per square foot, median sold home price, sale-to-list price ratio, median days on market, and more), select a geography:

NEW HOME CONSTRUCTION

In 2025, single-family residential construction in Graham County saw a strong resurgence, with 193 single-family units permitted. This represents a significant increase from the previous year, when 133 single-family units were permitted, and marks a notable rebound after several years of fluctuating activity.
The average value per single-family permit in 2025 was $272,124, which is lower than the previous year's average of $319,579. This decrease suggests a trend toward more affordable or smaller homes, or possibly greater cost efficiency in construction.
Broader residential construction data is available only for 2024 and 2025. During this period, total residential units permitted increased from 137 to 225. Multi-family construction, which was minimal in 2024 with just 4 units, saw a marked rise in 2025 with 32 units permitted (24 in two-unit structures and 8 in three- or four-unit structures). The total valuation of all residential permits also increased from $43.3 million in 2024 to $57.3 million in 2025. These recent figures highlight a period of renewed growth and diversification in Graham County's residential construction market.

See downloadable spreadsheets below for current and historical annual building permit data.

Bank deposits & bankruptcy filings

BANK DEPOSITS

Over the most recent five years, Graham County bank deposits have shown a mix of strong growth and recent volatility. Deposits increased from $404,625,000 in 2021 to a peak of $454,713,000 in 2024, with the largest annual gain in 2022 (+10.3%). Growth slowed in 2023 and 2024, and in 2025 deposits declined to $433,848,000, marking a -4.6% decrease. This pattern reflects a period of expansion followed by a notable pullback, highlighting both opportunity and risk for local banks. See downloadable spreadsheets below for current and historical bank deposits.

BANKRUPTCY FILINGS

Bankruptcy filings (all chapters) in Graham County in 2025 totaled 26. Recent bankruptcy trends in Graham County show a significant decline in filings after 2018, followed by a period of stabilization and modest fluctuation. In 2018, total filings were 62, but dropped sharply to 33 in 2019—a decrease of nearly 47%. The downward trend continued through 2021, reaching a low of 22 filings. From 2022 onward, filings rebounded slightly, ranging from 23 to 28 per year, with minor year-to-year changes. Overall, the pattern reflects a steep initial contraction, then a relatively stable period with small increases and decreases through 2025. See downloadable spreadsheets below for current and historical bankruptcy filings.

Tourism visitor counts & travel industry impacts

VISITOR COUNTS

Visitation at Roper Lake State Park experienced a significant surge in 2020, reaching a peak of 95,921 visitors. This spike likely reflects increased interest in outdoor recreation during the COVID-19 pandemic, a trend seen at many parks nationwide. In 2021, visitation remained high at 85,171, though slightly below the 2020 peak. However, 2022 saw a sharp decline to 53,433 visitors, which may be partially attributed to the implementation of a new visitor accounting system starting in July 2022. This change in methodology could have affected the reported numbers, making direct year-to-year comparisons more challenging.
In 2023 and 2024, visitation rebounded somewhat, with totals of 71,648 and 71,481 respectively, indicating a recovery from the 2022 drop but not returning to the record highs of 2020 and 2021. The partial data for 2026 (January–March) shows mixed trends: January and February are down compared to the previous year, while March is up by nearly 10%. This suggests some ongoing variability in monthly visitation patterns.
Overall, the recent trend shows a period of exceptionally high visitation during the pandemic, followed by a drop and then a partial recovery. The data also highlights the impact that changes in data collection methods can have on reported visitation figures.

See downloadable spreadsheets, below, for annual Roper Lake State Park visitor counts. For the most recent monthly data click here.

TRAVEL INDUSTRY IMPACTS

According to the 2024 Economic Impact of Travel in Arizona report, Graham County has seen a steady recovery and moderate growth in travel and tourism over the past several years. In 2024, total direct travel spending reached $80.8 million, up 3.4% from the previous year. Visitor spending, which makes up the majority of this total, increased by 4.7% to $72.5 million, while spending on other travel-related services declined slightly. The accommodation sector, including hotels, motels, and short-term vacation rentals, experienced notable growth, with spending rising 8.5% to $37.9 million. Food service spending also increased by 4.4%, reaching $22.5 million. Campground spending remained stable, while private home and seasonal home accommodations saw only minor changes.
Employment generated by travel in Graham County remained relatively stable, with 920 jobs directly supported by the industry in 2024. Direct earnings from travel-related employment grew by 6.5%, totaling $2.6 million.
Tax revenues generated by travel also remained steady, with local and state tax collections totaling $7.3 million. These trends indicate that Graham County's tourism sector is resilient, with particular strengths in lodging and food service. However, some categories such as transportation and retail saw slight declines, suggesting areas where further growth could be encouraged. Overall, the county's tourism economy is on a positive trajectory, supported by increased visitor spending and stable employment.

Graham County agriculture profile

2022 Census of Agriculture

Graham County, Arizona, in 2022 had a total of 359 farms covering 1,215,892 acres, resulting in an average farm size of 3,387 acres and a median size of 15 acres.
The estimated market value of land and buildings in the county was approximately $2.49 billion, with an average value per farm of $736,000 and per acre of $2,049.T he value of all machinery and equipment was $41.4 million, averaging $115,240 per farm.
Farm sizes varied widely, with the majority being small operations: 163 farms were between 1 and 9 acres, while 34 farms were 1,000 acres or more. Of the total land, 39,511 acres were cropland, with 31,963 acres harvested and 32,862 acres irrigated, supporting a strong crop production sector.
The market value of agricultural products sold in Graham County reached $56.97 million, averaging $158,688 per farm. Crop sales, including nursery and greenhouse products, accounted for $49.94 million, while livestock, poultry, and related products contributed $7.03 million. Farm production expenses totaled $50.64 million, and the net cash farm income for the county was $12.99 million, or $36,199 per farm, indicating overall profitability.
Livestock operations included 15,201 head of cattle and calves, 9,089 milk cows, 339 hogs and pigs, and smaller numbers of sheep, lambs, and egg-laying chickens.
Major crops included 4,238 acres of corn for grain yielding over 1 million bushels, 18,054 acres of cotton (both upland and Pima varieties) producing 32,463 bales, and 5,086 acres of forage crops yielding 22,091 tons. The county also had 45 farms with 1,334 acres in orchards and a small but diverse vegetable sector.
Government payments to farms totaled $2.3 million, and additional farm-related income reached $4.36 million.
Overall, Graham County's agriculture in 2022 was characterized by a mix of small and large farms, a strong emphasis on irrigated crop production—especially cotton and corn—and a positive net income for the sector.

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